Could have been worse. Could have been better. That’s the collective takeaway on Marvel Studios’ “The Fantastic Four: First Steps,” which pulled in $218 million globally following its July 25 bow.
But as with “Superman” two weeks prior, the superhero movie’s overseas haul — $100 million, including an anemic $4.5 million from China — offers a stark reminder of how much things have changed since pre-COVID days and where the tripwires lie for the Disney-owned studio, which has ambitious plans for two “Avengers” movies in 2026 and 2027, respectively, followed by an “X-Men” reboot further out on the horizon. By contrast, “Avengers: Endgame” nabbed $614 million from the Middle Kingdom alone in 2019.
“There’s a reset of what a hit is, and I don’t see them consistently hitting $1 billion as before — without China, with Disney+ exposure, post-COVID, without megastars,” says one top agent who represents several clients in the Marvel universe. “China used Marvel, Disney and the U.S. film industry to seed their own.”
Adds one insider of the lost China windfall: “We are never going to have those days again.”
That reality has changed the calculus at Marvel, led by Kevin Feige, when it comes to making a movie like “X-Men.” “Thunderbolts” helmer Jake Schreier is set to direct the tentpole, with the studio fine-tuning Michael Lesslie’s script.
Casting will begin soon, and the field is wide open. But Marvel has indicated to reps that it is looking for younger talent, rather than A-listers, to “keep the cost down,” says another agent. Marvel is holding July 23, 2027, on the release calendar for an unnamed film, but sources say it won’t be filled by “X-Men.” Marvel declined comment for this story.
While Matt Shakman’s “Fantastic Four” features a bona fide TV star in Pedro Pascal, who has made his mark on the small screen in everything from “The Mandalorian” to “The Last of Us,” he hasn’t yet scaled the same big-screen heights as the “Endgame” ensemble. And that helped keep the “Fantastic Four” budget manageable. Disney hasn’t given a precise figure on the film’s budget, only pegging it at somewhere north of $200 million.
“Avengers: Doomsday” will feature at least one mega-payday in Robert Downey Jr., who is returning to the Marvel fold as villain Doctor Doom. Sources say Downey Jr. has earned between $500 million and $600 million over the course of seven Marvel movies and three cameos and won’t be working at a discount on “Doomsday”; neither will Chris Hemsworth, who’s returning as Thor. As for who will be the star of the film, sources say Pascal is not the centerpiece, but does have an integral role. Regardless, the tentpole is on schedule to open Dec. 18, 2026.
Wall Street is keeping close tabs on Marvel as elements of its expanded portfolio fall into place, including the integration of 20th Century Fox assets like “Fantastic Four,” “X-Men” and last year’s runaway hit “Deadpool & Wolverine,” which earned $1.34 billion worldwide.
“Marvel is a critical piece to Disney’s overall premium IP. And the stronger Marvel is, the better it is for the overall company,” says Wall Street analyst Robert Fishman at MoffettNathanson.
“The recent studio momentum has allowed Disney to help drive subscriber growth at Disney+ and see the overall Disney flywheel start to accelerate again.”
There won’t be much to analyze for the next year. The next Marvel movie to hit theaters is “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” on July 31, followed by “Doomsday” in December and “Avengers: Secret Wars” in December 2027. Amid an industrywide pullback on superheroes, the Marvel brain trust is feeling no sense of urgency on the long-gestating “Blade” reboot or even a new “Deadpool” outing, sources say. However, ideas are percolating on a Ryan Coogler-helmed “Black Panther 3,” creating excitement internally.
Ultimately, Marvel is thrilled that it has brought “Fantastic Four” — a tricky property that proved vexing in the past — back from the grave: Fans have embraced the effort, giving the film an A- CinemaScore. The two previous incarnations found a tepid response from audiences, with diminishing returns. Tim Story’s 2005 version earned $334 million, while the drama-plagued 2015 version took home $168 million amid a public bashing from director Josh Trank, who complained of studio interference from Fox. (Actor Toby Kebbell corroborated Trank’s version of events.) This time around, the only minor blip came via a behind-the-scenes battle over screenwriting credits, with the WGA stepping in to make a determination. The union awarded final screenwriting credit to Josh Friedman, Eric Pearson, Jeff Kaplan, Ian Springer and Kat Wood.
For superhero watchers, good is the new great, as the genre finds its footing after a cold streak that included three recent Marvel misfires — “Thunderbolts,” “The Marvels” and “Eternals” — as well as a batch of duds from DC that predated the James Gunn-Peter Safran regime.
Says analyst Shawn Robbins of Box Office Theory: “I think as an industry we’ve become very obsessed with opening-weekend results, in particular with both [‘Superman’ and ‘Fantastic Four’]. Because word of mouth is so strong for both, I think the story is not fully obvious yet. Yes, ‘Fantastic Four’ is good enough in terms of it exceeded what Disney expected. So that’s a positive. And it’s tough to compare it to any other Marvel films because we simply live in a different time now for the superhero releases.”
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